The price of Bitcoin is down by 30% to 40% since just yesterday.
I have been waiting for that to happen — before investing time into the discussion we need to have today.
(For those of you just joining us, you can read about the Fintechcryptocurrencymining.com Free Academy )
Here’s what’s happening with Bitcoin — and what will happen:
Blockchain and cryptocurrencies are progressing through the standard Technology Hype Cycle (read Wikipedia article):
It is what happens to virtually all new technologies.
Here’s how it works:
At first, as more and more people become aware of the new technology, it starts to rise in popularity:
The media capitalizes on the excitement, helping to further build excitement for the technology’s future.
Then, as the excitement level exceeds reality about the technology’s current capability – it reaches the peak of inflated expectations:
That is where, as the name suggests, expectations are inflated beyond the capacity of the technology to deliver value.
In the case of Bitcoin and other coins, consider that:
- A currency’s purpose is to buy and sell things.
How many places can you shop at, with your Bitcoin?
- Blockchain, as a technology, has serious issues that have not been resolved. Without boring you with technical details, in its current form, it will not scale. That means it’s getting harder and harder for the Bitcoin platform to handle transactions.
And it will come to a halt unless there are some serious changes to how it works technically, which will be very difficult to implement, given that there is no company or focused group in control of it.
- There are other new approaches that solve the problems that Bitcoin has.
Just yesterday community member Jeannette pointed out how a new approach, called HashGraph, is massively more scaleable than Blockchain — meaning that it solves the largest problems with blockchain.
But it is totally different from Blockchain and is not a solution for Bitcoin.
Will HashGraph win? Or will it be any of 10 other interesting approaches?
Who knows! What matters is that the technical part is just one consideration. There are many other considerations, such as:
- How can the coin be used? Are there a massive number of products and services that can be purchased with the coin?
- Is there a company behind it – working to remove roadblocks in front of it, whenever they appear?
- Is there a community that’s working to get it adopted – beyond a bunch of people that are just buying it in the hopes that its price will go up, so they can sell it for a quick profit?
Here’s the issue:
To make big things happen, it requires a massive amount of coordinated effort and work.
And that takes time.
Taking time means there’s no Get Rich Quick possibility.
So, as reality catches up with the technology – as it becomes clear that those things (1, 2 and 3 above) do not exist yet — the crash begins:
During the crash, the media once again capitalizes on the opportunity, and everyone rushes to sell.
Some people will lose their life savings, friends, family and even their lives. It’s very sad.
After the crash, we enter the “trough of disillusionment” phase:
During the trough (valley) period, everything associated with the technology (in this case, “coins”) becomes equated with garbage.
Just say the word “coin” and you’ll be looked at like you’re an idiot.
Just like the peak, the trough is also exaggerated.
So, if all technologies go through this process, who are the winners?
The winners are those people that can see through all of this…
… because – from the very beginning — they were knowledgeable about the Technology Hype Cycle.
Because of that knowledge, from the beginning, they expected it all to go like that.
They are the only ones that were able to stay focused and keeping pushing forward.
And when all the speculators and Get Rich Quick people have moved on to the next shiny object, the process enters the Slope of Enlightenment:
It is at that point, that the world starts to realize, in our case hopefully that the empowr coin is on its way to become the world’s defacto standard currency…
… because it has hit that magical point called the “inflection point” where it cannot be stopped:
The inflection point will be reached because of all that we will have been working on and around the currency…
… things such as the social network with our trust flow and maturation, the integrated marketplace, success coaching and educational programs, transportation system, thousands of democracies each serving and staying in touch with the needs of their citizens…
The next period we enter is called the Plateau of Productivity:
That is where everyone is rewarded financially for having had the ability to bet on the future, and work towards it WITH FOCUS…
… while the rest of the world didn’t have the knowledge, ability or opportunity to do what we’re doing – which is to ignore the cycle and stay focused.
So, what’s the right strategy for all of us, as individuals?
- Don’t buy into the hype.The best way to do that is to not buy coin (Bitcoin or any other).
If you do buy, don’t buy too much, so its ups and down don’t affect your ability to focus.
Your purchases should amount to entertainment – like the amount you would be comfortable spending on going to the movies .
FOCUS FOCUS FOCUS
We must stay focused during the “Peaks” and the “Valleys”.
Don’t buy into the hype when everyone’s shouting that this is the best way to make big money overnight.
And don’t buy into the depression when everyone gets depressed.
Look, we have the most experience, tools and momentum in building long-term value around a currency.
Now, ALL you need to do is remain focused with a steady mind and hand.
So, will Bitcoin now continue to crash, or is this a temporary correction?
In other words, is it still on its way towards the Peak, or has it passed the peak and is on its way towards the valley (the trough of disillusionment)?
No one knows.
What we do know is that:
- Bitcoin WILL follow the Technology Hype Cycle, as all technologies before and after it will.
- And as it does, since it has the most eyeballs on it, all other cryptocurrencies will follow it up or down the cycle, as the market doesn’t and won’t have the ability to distinguish them from each other. That includes our coin.
- This community will continue building on its mission and 18-year head start in building everything around virtual currency.
Those of us that stay focused will be rewarded – as the concept of virtual currency comes out of the trough (valley) and into the final stages of evolution.
Those of us that cannot focus – that are more easily distracted by the hype (when it’s going up) and the depression (when it’s down) won’t stick around. And that’s neither good nor bad – it’s just the way the world works, so don’t let it get you down.
We will remain 100% focused on the mission. You can be fully confident about that one fact.
And, you can be just as confident that many of your fellow community members will stay focused too – given the many hurdles they’ve already had to overcome and yet they are still here.
Thanks for Learning more about – The Technology Hype Cycle here at
PS: For those of you interested in more details on the Technology Hype Cycle (graph from Wikipedia):